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DVR Dilemmaby Dave Zornow Here’ a media rule on which you can count: the more that people talk about research in the trades, the more you can be sure it isn’t research they really care about. The heated discussion between buyers and sellers about Nielsen’s new DVR ratings confirms this. Buyers are arguing that viewers will skip commercials in TiVO-ed telecasts. Broadcast networks counter claim that DVR playback will add viewership as consumers time-shift to watch competitively scheduled programs. A handful of agencies have announced they will only accept “live” ratings, excluding viewing that has been delayed for as little as a few seconds. Broadcast researchers want to use “Live + 7” ratings to include all viewing that occurs within seven days of initial telecast. Here’s the bottom line on the premiere of DVR ratings next year: It doesn’t matter - at least not yet. With DVR homes comprising less than 10% of US TV households, the difference between live-only and live + playback will be negligible. There just aren’t enough DVR homes to impact TV ratings in January 2006. Buyers and sellers are fighting a turf battle today to establish posting practices which will hold for decades. The public posturing is based on bits and pieces of patchwork research that may not be predictive of future viewing patterns. We really don’t know how many people skip commercials. Nor do we know if consumer eyes glued to the set while fast-forwarding to the end of a commercial break have less exposure value than live viewing. There’s more at stake than advertiser accountability and making media sales budgets when DVRs reach a critical mass of consumers in a few years. Although the broadcast nets have been most vocal to date, cable’s role as an incubator of innovative programming is threatened. If agencies choose live-only ratings for new ad supported channels, sellable niche numbers today will disappear in the future. The live-only scenario will hurt yet-to-be-thought-of cable nets, advertisers trying to reach new niche audiences and broadcast programmers who look to cable to develop new genres. ”Do no harm” is the right course until we know more about the impact of DVRs. A rush to judgment based on financial concerns without corroborating research can cripple the currency, stifle innovation and further exacerbate ratings instability. We should treat all viewing equally until we know more about ad recall in DVR homes and have a trend of people meter data to better understand how the digital video recorder will change television. ## --Dave Zornow is president of TNG Research, a media research and applications development company that works with media sellers and research providers. |